Globalaffairs

Issue 11/October-November 2008
By Juan Luis Dorado Merchán

Nearly three years ago, an indigenous, unionised, coca-farming leader came to power in Bolivia: Evo Morales. What was at the time celebrated as a success of integration and an historical achievement, as Morales is the first indigenous president of the country, has become a constant source of tension, not only within Bolivia itself, but also in the rest of Latin America.

Evo Morales’ arrival in power was received with joy and distrust in equal measures. Joy from the growing Left, which is strong in the region, above all with the Chávez-Castro alignment of the first few years of the new century. Distrust came from the United States and many other countries, both European and Latin American, worried about the situation of their businesses and investments in the country.

The first moments of Morales were intensely scrutinised by international analysts, but they soon saw that the world realised that his campaign was becoming deflated. First came a series of unpopular decisions, like the nationalisation of hydrocarbons, and above all the creation of a Constitutional Assembly to create a new Magna Carta for Bolivia; a constitution to his liking. This new constitutional text, with a referendum attached to it, ended up leaving the country without a leader. It was approved in November 2007, in the city of Oruro, in the middle of a crisis and out war with the opposition over the legality or illegality of the whole process.

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Issue 11/October-November 2008
By Glen Ruffle

This is a difficult time for the global economy and for Europe. Capitalism is struggling, China is rising, oil is declining, and the environment is suffering. Is this the end of capitalism as we know it, or just a normal part of international economics?

Not long ago, hardly any one in the world had heard of ‘credit-crunches’ or ‘subprime’ markets. Now, these words are on the tip of everyone’s tongue, as the real effects of this seemingly far-off financial crisis bite at home. Once, good management of an economy did not matter so much; growth was guaranteed simply because there was so much money around. Now, there is a limit on the amount of money being supplied, and only the safest investments will get it.

So where did it all start? Like most global trends, the credit crisis began in the United States. Banks, always seeking to make more and more money, started offering mortgages to families who would be extremely unlikely of ever repaying that money. They then repackaged these mortgages to look like safe long-term investments, and sold them.

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Issue 11/October-November 2008
By Kim Young

Not since President Richard Nixon, or perhaps the Clinton/Lewinsky scandal, any President has been more embroiled in controversy. From the outing of CIA former covert spy, Valerie Plame to the most unpopular war in US history, President George W. Bush has been declared the United States worst President ever by some historians, citizens and foreign countries alike. To attempt to compress a presidency of eight years into one article is almost impossible and so I will touch on some issues.

Everything from education to jobs and the current Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac predatory Mortgage lending debacles continue to plague Bush’s Presidency and the economy of the United States. It just seems that President Bush cannot avoid being the butt of major criticism on nearly every issue important to the people of the United States. Even the members of the Republican Party are fed up and the GOP is decidedly hoping that the John McCain/Sarah Palin ticket may steer them from Bush/Cheney era and lead them to a new dispensation in domestic and world politics. Bush is hugely unpopular in Europe.

In an article written by noted historian Sean Wilenz in a Rolling Stone Magazine article comments, “yet recently, just short of three years after Bush buoyantly declared “mission accomplished” in Iraq, his disapproval ratings have been running considerably higher than Johnson’s, at about sixty percent. More than half the country now considers Bush dishonest and untrustworthy, and a decisive plurality consider him less trustworthy than his predecessor, Bill Clinton — a figure still attacked by conservative zealots as “Slick Willie.” (1).

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Issue 11/October-November 2008
By Daniil Gorbatenko

When ZANU-PF and MDC signed the Zimbabwe power sharing deal (ZPSD) brokered by the South-African president Thabo Mbeki on September, 15 [1], it occurred to me for a moment that I might have been too rash to conclude in my recent article that a workable power-sharing deal is impossible and that outside intervention is the likeliest route to Mugabe’s regime demise. The initial conciliatory statements of the parties involved and cautious (expressed by David Miliband) [2] and not-so-cautious (expressed by Ban Ki Moon) [3] optimism from the outside observers seemed to tune into this narrative.

However, the developments that followed the handshakes suggest that ZPSD appears to be a non-starter. And here is why.

The first impediment to successful implementation of the deal lies in the widely differing motivations of the parties which have little to share in terms of intentions and much in terms of power. Although both MDC and ZANU-PF had to make significant rhetorical concessions to show good will, ZANU-PF and Mugabe obviously have a hidden agenda. In fact, their chief motivation for sharing power with MDC on paper seems to be prevention of total economic collapse by fooling foreign investors and aid agencies into changing their attitude to the political regime in Zimbabwe. One may ask why Mugabe and his cronies fear such collapse. The reason is plain simple, the need to pay salaries to the army and secret police to keep the regime afloat.

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Issue 11/October-November 2008
By Johannes Olschner

With the opening of hostilities in Georgia on 7 August, the PR agencies of the opposing sides went into overdrive. With this, a new front was opened in the war between Georgia and Russia, and the size and sophistication of Tbilisi’s PR operation soon became apparent. President Mikhail Saakashvili is alleged to have paid a Brussels PR agency €500,000 to brush up Tbilisi’s pro-Western image, emphasising its desire for NATO accession and democratic credentials. But there are many question marks hanging over possible membership. It is a country with few oil and natural gas reserves, has a small and weak military, is unstable and corrupt, and is not quite so democracy and civil liberties friendly as many in the West are led to believe. Moreover, support for this state is doing much damage to already strained Russo-Western relations. So why is NATO (and Washington in particular) so keen to bring Georgia into the Euro-Atlantic Alliance?

Giorgi Badridze, Acting Head of the Georgian embassy in London, claims that what Georgia has to offer NATO is a modern military; it has, he says, a small, well-equipped and well-trained military, “the most modern army of the states of the former Soviet Union”. But with NATO’s member countries at the forefront of military technology, Georgia’s relative modernity relies on assistance from NATO countries. As James Nixey, manager of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House in London states, “Georgia wouldn’t add anything in terms of military capacity”.

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Issue 11/October-November 2008
By Arif Shiri

Afghanistan has been at the centre of attention between the czarist Russian and the Western countries for the last centuries. At this period of time none of the superpowers focused on bringing peace and stability in the country, except following their own interests, nor humanitarian issues were monitored until 2001. Afghanistan itself was struggling for its own sovereignty during this period of time. Meanwhile, at this time, neighbouring countries and other states have interfered to Afghan government, to its society, and to its foreign and domestic politics which it has affected on its domestic and foreign affairs. Historian writers such as Anglo Rasanayagam (2005, p162) outlined in his book that;

“The whole Afghan issue was the issue of security between imperial Britain and czarist Russia that determine the status of Afghanistan as a buffer state rather than the issue of its sovereignty”.

By viewing the Afghanistan’s recent history, it might give us a picture of whether Afghan was used as a buffer state or not. It is believed by most historians like above writer that Afghanistan was useful for the British and the Russians as buffer state for maintenance of the balance of power in the region, in the late nineteenth century, during the King Abdur Rahman; also Rahman received subsides from the British to enable him internal order and stability.

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Issue 11/October-November 2008
By Leigh Howard

This article attempts to objectively analyse the political and legal restrictions placed on the International Criminal Court (ICC), in order to decipher whether the Court can effectively prosecute crimes against humanity. It is found that while there are many restrictions placed upon the Court, this does not nullify its existence nor does it make its ability to prosecute crimes against humanity ineffectual.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) was established on July 1, 2002, and is a result of its founding treaty, the Rome Statute. It seeks jurisdiction over acts criminalised by the jus cogens doctrine, namely genocide, war crimes, crimes of aggression and crimes against humanity. The prohibition of crimes against humanity has historically been a rapidly evolving doctrine and has received some significant additions under the Rome Statute. There are, however, legal and political limitations that threaten the capacity of the ICC to effectively prosecute crimes against humanity. These limits are to be assessed objectively to predict whether the ICC will enjoy success, and it is the legal definition that sets the first and foremost restrictions on jurisdiction.

The criteria that triggers ICC jurisdiction over crimes against humanity are outlined in Article 7 of the Rome Statute. According to this article, ‘crimes against humanity’ are acts “committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack.” The Article then goes on to list the kinds of acts that are considered to be crimes against humanity. Such acts include, but are not limited to, murder, extermination, torture, enslavement, deportation, gender crimes, the crime of apartheid, enforced disappearance of persons and imprisonment. A legal analysis of how crimes against humanity are defined provides us with the first and foremost limitations on the ICC’s ability to effectively prosecute.

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Issue 11/October-November 2008
By Sushil Shriwastwa

The two words art and investment taken together create an intellectual contradiction and force us to think as to how an art object is termed as an investment. An art object is a soulful expression of the artistic sensibilities that has an intrinsic value. This is not just because of the interlaced creative and aesthetic juices but also because of its relevance in the time frame of an era. And it is due to these attributes that an art object acquires a financial value. And since art is very subjective it needs deeper understanding with regard to its financial aspect.

Investment in the art market requires not only the knowledge of the markets for individual artists but also the risks associated with such investment. The art market is less volatile compared to the stock markets. The art market is far less sensitive to economic crises and geographical events than other assets. Art was already one of the lucrative options for investment but due to riskier stock market and real estate, new collectors and investment funds are showing interest in new areas of investment like art. These investors are inclined towards the contemporary art, one of the most volatile but liquid market now-a-days.

Looking at 2007 auction results it is clear that the art is particularly attractive for speculators and the appetite of sellers has been growing with each new sale. To meet this appetite and simultaneously create some of their spectacular sales, the two rivals Sotheby’s and Christie’s have been playing the bidding game however both companies have realized the inward movement towards the sellers and offering guaranteed sales price. Looking at the top line of this incredibly competitive market, we find that Christie’s generated the largest global fine art fund followed by its rival Sotheby’s. In order to increase their market share, the auction houses have already entered the emerging markets like China, India and UAE. Firms like Christie’s, Sotheby’s, Bonham’s, Art curial and Koller have made a major investment in a view to consolidate their international footprint particularly in China.

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Issue 11/October-November 2008
By Javier Delgado Rivera

Viet Nam is a country in motion. This Southeast Asian emerging economy is engaged in a political, economic and social evolving mode. It all started on the mid-80s, when the single-ruling Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) indirectly acknowledged its incapacity to develop the country out of decades of war against foreign aggressors. Viet Nam’s economic fall between 1978 and 1982 forced its leadership to adopt a number of principles distinctive from the opposite camp; the market-inspired reforms of Doi Moi were introduced. Besides improving considerably the living standards of ordinary Vietnamese, the policies of Doi Moi also distorted the ideological foundations of the VCP. The Party’s original Marxist-Leninist doctrine faces today the greatest of the challenges (even more threatening than the American army in the 60s and 70s); justifying its relevance in the globalisation era.

The doctrinal contradictions defying the VCP are best evaluated by taking a close look at the Party factions’ interplay. For the conservative bloc, the Doi Moi’s redress has come with a high cost; the betrayal of Ho Chi Minh Thoughts favouring the reformers’ realities of bread and butter.

This paper evaluates the shock endured by the VCP ideology since the Doi Moi and its repercussions on state institutions, the unity of the Party leadership, and the country political liberties.

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Issue 11/October-November 2008
By Glen Ruffle

The Georgian-Russian war in South Ossetia may be over, but its long term effects could prove monumental. Russia was victorious, the EU has been strengthened, US power is weakened, and NATO, the object of much Georgian foreign policy, could be seriously undermined.

The first casualty of war is always truth. When Russian tanks poured into South Ossetia on 8th August, rumours erupted of thousands of deaths, ethnic cleansing and genocide. For the most part, the media in Europe and the United States immediately started reminding everyone of the Cold War, and likening this intervention to the Soviet crushing of the Prague Spring in 1968.

It was clear to work out the good guys and bad guys: the big, angry and aggressive Russian bear was invading the tiny, defenceless and peace-loving Georgia. Russia was wrong, Georgia was right. This image was reinforced by the Russian secrecy surrounding the operation, whilst Georgian President Saakashvili appeared personally on TV interviews with all the major Western TV channels, launching a spectacular public relations assault.

Yet now, as peace returns, we can start to assess the evidence. Tragically, hundreds of people did die. But the genocide that Saakashvili talked about was purely in his imagination. And the speculation that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline running across South Georgia was to be a target for the Russians also proved to be just that: speculation.

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