Globalaffairs

Issue 14/April-May 2009
By Alexandre Calvo Cristina

The purpose of this article is to examine to what extent Japanese companies might have played a role in Dr. Khan’s international nuclear proliferation network, and from here examine some wider issues related to Japan’s defense and nuclear policies.

Did Japanese companies provide Khan with parts, technology, and machinery?

Although not a nuclear weapons state, Japan is scientifically advanced country with a large number of nuclear electricity generating plants as well as a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a club of nuclear technology exporting countries that cooperate on nonproliferation efforts.

A report by Kyodo News on February 17th carried by the Japan Times (1), has shed some light on the participation of a number of Japanese companies in the worldwide network of Dr. Khan, from which KRL obtained some key pieces of equipment.

According to Kyodo News, Dr. Khan and some (undisclosed) former employees of certain Japanese corporations have revealed the key role played by Japan-based companies in the operation of the network.

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Issue 14/April-May 2009
By Juan Luis Dorado Merchán

This article could perfectly be titled “Hugo Chávez’s nationalizations” or perhaps “Chávez’ economic politics”, but considering Chávez’s policies and manners, it is more suitable for the reader to write a crazy and a bit incomprehensible title.

Everyday Hugo Chávez clings more and more to power in Venezuela. His victory in the last elections gave him carte blanche in every regards, especially in controlling his main aim: oil.

Threatening foreign companies settled in Venezuela seems to be one of Chavez’ favourite sports in his thirst for nationalizing everything, taking the companies’ goods to give them to people. But, to which part of Venezuelan people does it belongs?

“Chávez threatens more nationalizations”, the media reported some months ago. Nothing new. No. This time it is different. Now Chávez has all the power he could achieve and he has got the option to remain in power all the years that the Constitution will establish, which means: all the time he will wish to keep in it.

We imagine that his economic and politic analysts, his nearest advisers, tell him about the misfortunes such as the slowdown to foreign investment will cause in Venezuela. However, Chávez doesn’t care because he has got oil.

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Issue 14/April-May 2009
By Glen Ruffle

On 2nd April 2009, many important global leaders gathered in London to discuss the global financial crisis. Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, South Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Turkey, and the US were invited by the UK to meet and try to work out a shared way forwards through the crisis.

Ultimately this summit has made some steps forwards but is not a resounding triumph. Using debt, governments will try and protect people from the consequences of the recession, whilst another result of the summit was to construct a stronger global regulatory system.

The agreement that was reached [1] shows that what was argued in this magazine, Global Affairs, four months ago [2], has to some extent been recognised by global elites and adopted. Points 3 and 13 in the agreement reached in London pick up on the failure of the financial regulatory bodies and how they failed to understand and effectively monitor the dangerous activities of their clients, whilst recognising that the market system, combined with strong regulation, is the best way forwards.

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Issue 14/April-May 2009
By Monica Díez

18th November was officially inaugurated the UN Human Right Room cupola, headquarters in Geneva, made by the Mallorcan artist Miquel Barceló.

We are not discussing the artistic value of the work, after analyzing many people opinions, most of them have labeled it as “shameful” and “ugly” or “colorful shits” (that should make the artist think about his art goals). Also its financing was controversial because it is contradictory that a person cooperating with NGOs helping Saharawi, Mozambique, Mali or Bolivia should not take FAD funds for his own profit. But for sure Barcelo belongs to the artist group supporting Zapatero, it seems that we have returned to the political art sponsors which are in any tyrannical regime (as the Nazi regime where it was an official art and the rest was forbidden because it was considered immoral). The difference is that in this case artists joined under democracy for climbing up regardless of their works quality.

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Issue 14/April-May 2009
By Luis Guillermo Colín Villavicencio

On 25th and 26th March the USA Secretary of State Hilary Clinton visited Mexico. It was an official visit, the first one since she was appointed by President Barack Obama and it is in the context of a serial of visits being done since February to European and Asian countries.

Overall, the assessment of such visit is positive due to four aspects, however, there is a negative aspect related to the potential appointment of the North American diplomat Carlos Pascual as representative of such country in Mexico.

First of all, the meeting of Clinton with the President Calderon is framed in a high diplomatic level dialogue that has been initiated in February when President Calderon visited the still elected President Barack Obama. The participation of Foreign Secretary Espinosa in the meeting could have established a new personal relation between both. This will allow going forward in the definition and enforcement of the Binational Agenda Mexico-USA.

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Issue 14/April-May 2009
By Andrea Bonzanni

Until a few years, piracy seemed to have been swept away in this world of technology and instant communication. Like carrier pigeons and lonely explorers, it took a somewhat romanticised character and appeared only in the pages of novels and in the scenes of adventurous films. The few cases taking place every year in the Straits of Malacca and some way off the coasts of Nigeria were deemed to disappear soon [1] and the international crime of piracy – defined as “the raid of ships and their crews for private ends” [2] – was being forgotten in a few spared lines of maritime law manuals.

Over recent years, however, the exponential increase in the volume of international trade and the presence of a ‘failed state’ in Somalia led to a resurgence of such activity, whose entity reached a worryingly point in 2008. Far from the time when the Indian Ocean was the safest way for the East-West commerce route [3], acts of piracy in the area between the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea have grown steadily. Lately, it has been calculated that over 20,000 ships (around 1% of the total maritime traffic in the area) have been affected by attacks or attempts of seizure [4]. Worries have mounted also because the pirates have progressively increased their capacity, abandoning the little boats they once used and they now operate with full-fledged cargo boats [5]. The ruthlessness of the attacks has been proportioned to the means at their disposal, possessing now AK-47 and rocket-propelled grenades [6]. Ransoms have therefore grown accordingly and passed from averaging $500,000 in 2007 to ranging from $1 to $8 million one year later [7].

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Issue 14/April-May 2009
By Enrico Labriola

What Naples lacks in these times is hope. In recent times it seems that news coming from the South biggest city has to be only painfully dramatic. The Camorra’s war with its daily bulletin of murders, the garbage problem on the streets and squares of Naples and its nearby cities, and the appalling situation of Naples suburbs are all caused by one main problem: the Camorra (you can call it Naples mafia), with its pervasive system and huge business. It is hard to imagine how the regular system substitution for the criminal one could create a new diabolic social pact founded on intimidation, violence and corruption, and how it could become powerful day by day, in the silence or complicity of the authorities, and with the cooperation or indifference of many inhabitants. The main thing to understand is that the Camorra is founded on making business. Money (and the power derived from it) is the main goal of the 200 families that controls Naples neighborhoods and the surrounding cities. Money from all the activities that you can imagine, from the dirtiest to the more respectable one: you can extract money from drug trafficking and extortion, from prostitution and black market, from irregular work and manipulation of public contracts, from ‘taxes’ on businesses and need of protection, from money laundering and garbage trafficking, from arms and homes selling, from fairs, pensions, children and oldsters, hospitals and department stores, and the list could continue filling pages and pages.

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Issue 13/ April-May 2009
By Andrea Bonzanni

The distorted image of Dubai as a metropolis where everything is luxury and the Emirati GDP growth of 8.5% in 2008 [1] make worries about the future of the economy and the very word “crisis” sound improbable when associated to the Emirate. Nonetheless, economic forecasts are not bright. The Egyptian investment bank EFG Hermes has even predicted a restrain of the GDP in absolute term [2] – a really hard hit for one of the fastest growing economies until last year. Businessmen and policymakers in Dubai are profoundly concerned and emergency action is being taken.

Amongst the problems that every economy has to cope with in these times of financial crisis, the situation is worsened in Dubai by the dramatic slump in oil prices. The drop of the barrel by nearly two thirds from the peak registered last summer can indeed have important economic and social consequences in the Emirate. Contrary to the case of other small Gulf economies, this would hardly bring about financial disruption and deterioration of public accounts, since Dubai gets only a tiny 6% of its GDP from the activity of hydrocarbon extraction [4]. Substantially low prices for are prolonged period of time – by cutting off the steady inflow of rents in foreign currency – are however likely to reduce the ability of the Emirate to collect capital fast and cheaply, depriving the economy of Dubai with one of its main comparative advantages. Oil rent also serves an important socio-political function: being it solidly controlled by the Al Maktoum ruling family and then distributed to citizens, it has helped build the existing structure of Dubaian society and shape the relationship between the government and the people [6]. This mechanism – foundation of all the so-called oil-states – has been the main source of legitimacy for the existing elite in Dubai and its deterioration is likely to bring about some cracks in a rule whose stunningly stability has shocked democracy activists and charmed investors accordingly.

Long term fluctuations of oil prices are hardly foreseeable. Being the factors which caused prices to skyrocket until 2008 mostly structural, it seems reasonable to assume a comeback of expensive oil when the winds of recession stop blowing, even though too many factors are at play to make predictions without a sensible degree of uncertainty. Anyhow, Dubai – being unable to do much for affecting the price trends alone – should just not concentrate on this point. It is Saudi Arabia, which can take actions – also unilaterally – to influence the cost of the barrel. Therefore, policymakers in Dubai are rightly not even pushing on oil prices, focusing instead on other issues and industries and trying to make up for the important losses in the hydrocarbon sector.

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Issue 14/April-May 2009
Rahul Amola

The free, fair, and peaceful elections in Jammu & Kashmir are a significant achievement. Only a few months ago the state was ravaged by protests over the Amarnath land issue; large demonstrations took place in valley matched by equally vociferous and passionate protests in some parts of Jammu. Articulate columnists had suggested what was hitherto unthinkable: India should give up Kashmir, as the issue at hand seemed intractable. Others had argued that the holding elections at this juncture were a meaningless exercise with a guaranteed low voter turn out. The Huriyat conference—having rediscovered it political relevance through the Amarnath land issue—was on ascendance and had given a call for boycotting the elections.

In sharp contrast to what doomsayers had predicted, Jammu and Kashmir (J &K) recorded a heavy turn out in the recently concluded state elections. Nowhere, not even in the separatist stronghold of Srinagar, voter turn out was in single digits. After the usual political deal making, the state is well on its way to a stable political coalition broadly reflecting the aspirations of the voters.

Elections in Jammu and Kashmir are much more than a democratic ritual. In the popular Kashmiri imagination, they have been powerful symbols: of faith and betrayal; of resistance and accommodation; of hope and disillusionment; of confidence and uncertainty.

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