Globalaffairs

Issue 17/October-November 2009
By Andrea Bonzanni

The United States does not seem to have much hope about the chances to strike a deal with Iran on the nuclear programme. In spite of the historic resume of negotiations with the 5+1 on 1st October in Geneva, the Obama administration is already working on a possible tightening of economic sanctions. At the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh, President Obama denounced with unusual harsh tones the existence of a secret nuclear site in Qom, signaling a shift in US attitude towards the Islamic Republic.

The change of paradigm had already emerged on 9th September, when leaked intelligence reports to the White House and a statement by the American ambassador at the IAEA publicly acknowledged that Iran possessed the technology and the know-how to produce a bomb within a short time. These positions may be linked to a revaluation of the threat due to new information from recent intelligence activities. However, analysts interpret them as a way to put pressure on allies (in particular China and Germany, respectively the first and third exporter towards Iran) and to convince them to accept a stricter sanction regime against Iran.

Continue reading »

Issue 17/October-November 2009
By Glen Ruffle

Lisbon has finally been passed after the Irish were made to vote again. Yet the process exposed how the EU breaks its own rules, how the mass media can change societies, and how vulnerable Ireland now is to the Lisbon Treaty.

It was not a surprise. Given the vast amounts of resources thrown at it, the second Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty was a foregone conclusion. To be truly democratic, of course, we should now have a third referendum, a deciding vote. All we have now is one ‘yes’ and one ‘no’ [1]. Yet Europe has what it wants now, so such democratic niceties can be laid aside.

The second referendum was an exercise in power and manipulation that the Soviet Union would have been proud of. It harnessed the full power of every available medium and used them to persuade the people of Ireland to vote ‘yes’. Business, the European Parliament, the European Commission and the Irish government all combined forces to manipulate a ‘Yes’ vote [2].

Continue reading »

Issue 17/October-November 2009
By Glen Ruffle

Obama’s recent announcement that he will abandon George Bush’s missile defence shield and the positioning of missiles in Eastern Europe, along Russia’s borders, supposedly aimed at Iran, has been welcomed in Moscow, and secretly, will have been welcomed by the US Treasury.

At a time of financial crisis, and with an enormous deficit and debt, the US cannot really afford to press ahead with such an expensive, unproven and destabilizing programme [1]. There is no proof the missiles will work, and Russia, with a large stabilization fund full of money to spend, would launch an arms race the US could ill-afford. Obama knows that it is far better to have Putin and Medvedev on side in dealing with the real problem of Iran, because of their influence [2].

Elections

The recent elections in Iran have seen Ahmadinejab retain his grip on power, with the blessing of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Together, they have reversed the slow trend to modernisation and openness begun under President Rafsanjani and continued under Ahmadinejad’s predecessor, President Khatami.

Continue reading »