Globalaffairs

Issue 18/December-January 2010
By Glen Ruffle

For the past century, the global spread of democracy has helped secure peace and stability in the world. It has long been noted that democracies rarely go to war with other democracies, and particularly in this day and age of international communications and globalisation, the capacity for citizens to communicate internationally has grown phenomenally.

Yet 2010 could be the start of the end of this era. The passing into law of the Lisbon Treaty represents a choice by the elite of Europe to choose power instead of democracy. The rise of China as a global power, still controlled by a single party; the secure base of power that Putin and Medvedev have in Russia; and the dictatorships across the Middle East; all of these show us that democracy still has a long way to go. As Vaclav Havel noted, “The era of totalitarian systems has not ended…new, far more sophisticated ways of controlling society are being born” [1]. All of this means one thing: the time of democracy has passed. We are entering a new epoch in world history.

The age of democracy

One hundred years ago, the British Empire was the largest Empire the world had ever known. But in Europe, imperial rivalries were brewing, and soon everything erupted into war. The First World War severely damaged the financial viability of the British Empire, and out of the wreckage of war, US President Woodrow Wilson started promoting liberal ideals that every people should have their own government. Following the Second World War, the advance of democracy, and the retreat of Imperialism was in full swing. The global Empires of Europe retracted, often leaving behind new democracies. The world was witnessing the age of American hegemony, and the American power championed, at least vocally, democracy and democratic rights across the world.

Decline of America

Yet now the age of American power is passing too. Obama’s conciliatory foreign policy is not just because he is a democrat. It is also a real reflection that the US no longer has the capability of policing the world, or of building alone a global missile defence system [2], [3]. As a reflection of this, has been the discussion about a new global currency or basket of currencies to replace the dollar, given the colossal debt the US has acquired [4], [5]. And helping in this process of eroding US power is the European Union, through various methods, such as undermining NATO [6].

The European Union

When the Lisbon Treaty came into force, it at least increased the power of the European Parliament. However, whichever way you look at it, Lisbon was a power grab by the big states [7], and a power grab by the EU institutions.

Let us be clear about what the EU is: it is estimated that up to 80% of French law comes from Brussels [8], [9]. That means that French people are being governed by politicians from other countries, not by the ones they voted for. And it is estimated that now 27 million (and growing) British citizens have never had a chance to say if they want to be a member of the European Union [10]. Across Europe, embarrassingly, it is non-EU member Switzerland that has had more votes on EU membership than any other EU country [11]! And then consider that the European Commission, with non-elected officials and with 3000 secret working groups, is the sole source of legislation in the EU [12]. It is no wonder that so few people know who their MEP is or bother to vote for him/her (only 43% of Europe bothered to turnout and vote in the 2009 elections [13]), and that the democratic deficit, which they had hoped would disappear as Euro-MPs replaced national ones, has remained [14].

The Lisbon Treaty created a new position, now filled by Herman Van Rompuy, former Prime Minister of Belgium, who is effectively President of Europe. Yet which citizen of Europe voted for him? And the process by which Lisbon became law, via threats to Ireland and via ignoring the no vote of France, where an almost identical document was disapproved, shows just how desperate and elitist Europe has become [15], [16], [17].

The Dragon

However, Europe is potentially something of a footnote, with a declining population and uncompetitive market [18] compared with the emerging power of China. With over 1/6th of the world’s population, and an unstoppable economy, China is emerging as the new global superpower (19). And it is very clear what kind of power that China is. It does not lecture on human rights [20]. It goes straight to governments, offers them money for resources, or bribes the necessary people, and then takes the resources and processes them, selling them on at a higher price. It is pragmatic and has been quietly buying up Africa, whilst allowing the Sri Lankan government to get away with vast crimes to defeat the Tamil Tigers [21]. It abandoned ideology in the 1980s, and has since then been on an incessant quest for materials and fuel to keep its amazing expansion on track [22]. It looks after itself, copying a model set by Europe during the age of Imperial expansion.

The Bear

The north of the Chinese dragon is a land rich in resources and keen to fuel the Chinese economy. With the continual expansion of NATO to the East, the Russian bear is being pushed by the West towards China, and it is no wonder that a regime that is far from truly democratic has a firm hold on power [23]. President Medvedev, widely seen as, at best, an associate of Putin, saw the extension of the Presidential term from 4 to 6 years [24]. Putin is widely believed to be wanting to stand for election again, and with the Constitutional ability to stand for 2 consecutive terms, he will be President for a total of 12 more years. The corrupt election system [25] and wide powers of the security services [26] will ensure stability and that no electoral surprises will happen. In short, Russia is not drifting towards more democracy, but towards managed stability (where the general public mood is monitored closely, but little thought is given to general democracy) or as it has also been dubbed, ’sovereign democracy’ [27].

Elsewhere…

Need we look elsewhere? The continuing dictatorships in the Middle East and Arabic world [28]; the potential of Africa marred by the deep poverty that still plagues this rich continent [29]; the ever present corruption in South America; all of this is testament to America’s main failure: hypocrisy. A happiness to talk about democracy, but a willingness to work with any regime is the historical legacy of the age of America.

Our future in the hands of the Chinese people

And that leaves the rest of Asia. Asia has emerged as the winner of the Cold War, but with China at the centre, everything revolves around the will of the rulers of this new Empire. So long as the Chinese people remain silent and placid, and so long as the government keeps dissenters down, then China will not change. Ironically, it may be the only hope for democracy, that capitalism follows the path that Marx predicted, of booms and busts, or increasing unemployment and frustration, leading to a point where the people revolt. It would be a great irony if the communist government was overthrown by Chinese revolutionary democrats, because of the capitalist reforms! Yet this could be our last hope for global democracy…

Glen Ruffle
Worked in British politics and achieved a Masters degree from the University of Southampton.

Bibliography/Sources

[1] Vaclav Havel (2009) ‘Havel slams Russia during Velvet Revolution festivities’, page 4 of The Moscow Times, 16/11/09.

[2] Christopher Meyer (2009) ‘Why Obama is turning his back on Britain…’, pages 14-15 of Daily Mail, Saturday 26/09/09.

[3] Jeremy Page (2007) ‘Giants meet to counter US power’, page 47 of The Times, Thursday February 15th 2007.

[4] David Usborne (2009) ‘G20 leaders set sights on global economic reform’, page 6 of The Independent, Friday 25th September 2009.

[5] John Gray (2008) ‘A shattering moment in America’s fall from power’, The Guardian, 28/09/2008.

[6] Glen Ruffle (2008) ‘Slowly and surely, Europe undermines NATO’, page 8 of The European Journal, September 2008, published by The European Foundation.

[7] The Economist (2008) December 6th-12th, Volume 389, Number 8609. ‘Charlemagne: Grumpy Uncle Vaclev’, page 50.

[8] Bob Spink MP (2008) Column 1294, European Union (Amendment) Bill debate, 21 January 2008, 8.19pm, Volume 470, Number 34 of Hansard.

[9] Eurofacts, 22nd June 2007, page 3, volume 12, number 18; Zemmour, Eric (2007) ‘Deux enarques seulemet sur quinze ministres: extinction ou mutation de l’elite republicaine?’ In Le Figaro, 4th June 2007.

[10] Bill Cash MP (2007) The dogs have barked and the European caravan must be stopped, pages 3 to 11 of The European Journal, November/December 2007, Volume 14, Number 10.

[11] Nicolas G Hayek (2009) ‘Nicolas G Hayek about Switzerland and the European Union’, at: http://www.swatchgroup.com/en/services/archive/2009/nicolas_g_hayek_about_Switzerland_and_the_european_union Accessed Nov. 18th 2009

[12] Jens-Peter Bonde MEP (2008) Going the distance, page 27-28, The Parliament, Issue 263, 17th March 2008. Dods.

[13] Wikipedia (2009) ‘European Parliament Election 2009, accessed at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009

[14] Struan Stevenson MEP (2009) ‘Auf Wiedersehen, EU Superstate’, page 17 of The European Journal, Volume 16, Number 6, August 2009, published by the European Foundation.

[15] Helena Spongenberg, quoting Valery Giscard D’Estaing (2007) ‘Lisbon Treaty made to avoid referendum, says Giscard’, EU Observer, 29.10.07, at: http://euobserver.com/9/25052

[16] Timothy Garton Ash (2008) http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/19/eu.ireland 19th June 2008, in The Guardian.

[17] Robin Shepherd, Senior Fellow at Chatham house (2007) Lessons for Europe if Belgium Fails, Financial Times, 18th September 2007.

[18] Ian Milne (2007) ‘The UK’s future export growth markets’, at: http://www.global-vision.net/perspectives10.asp Global Vision.

[19] Gideon Rachman (2009) ‘Wrapping up a normal 2009′, page 10 of The Moscow Times, Monday 28th Dec. 2009.

[20] Yulia Latynina (2009) ‘The dragon and the amoeba’, page 9 of The Moscow Times, 21st October 2009, Number 4258.

[21] Wen Liao (2009) ‘China crosses the rubicon’, page 8 of The Moscow Times, 19th June 2009.

[22] Onyekachi Wambu (2009) ‘Chinese puzzle’, pages 34-35 of Developments, Issue 40, 2009. Published by the UK Department for International Development. Extract from ‘Under the Tree of Talking - Leadership for Change in Africa’. British Council, 2007.

[23] Sergei Karaganov (2009) ‘Russia will save the West’, page 8 of The Moscow Times, Tuesday 29th December 2009.

[24] Mail Foreign Service (2008) ‘Putin inches closer to comeback as Duma extends Presidential term and Medvedev talks of stepping down’, 14th November 2008, The Daily Mail, at: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1085756/Putin-inches-closer-comeback-Duma-extends-presidential-term-Medvedev-talks-stepping-down.html

[25] Financial Times Editorial (2009) ‘Russia needs more WTO, fewer bandits’, page 10 of The Moscow Times, Monday 23rd November 2009.

[26] Nikolaus Von Twickel (2009) ‘2 Senior Judges quit after criticism’, page 1 of The Moscow Times, 3rd December 2009.

[27] Edward Lucas (2008) ‘The New Cold War: How the Kremlin menaces both Russia and the West’, Bloomsbury. Exerpts published in Daily Mail, Saturday January 19th 2008, Pages 38-39.

[28] Netanyahu, B. (2000) ‘A Durable Peace: Israel And Its Place Among The Nations’, Warner Books, Bantam Books, New York.

[29] Paul Collier (2007) ‘Work for three instruments’, page 38 of ‘Developments’, published by the UK Department For International Development, editors Martin Wroe and Malcolm Doney.

The views and opinions of contributors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of Global Affairs