Globalaffairs

Issue 6 /December-January 2008
By Lázaro Rosa

We should wonder if the United States is now in a position to carry out a high scale attack against Iran. The answer is, in my opinion, that this situation should not take place. To begin with, Washington is still stuck in its political impasse in the Middle East, due to its lack of capacity to achieve a coherent strategy that helps the development of democracy in Iraq. Besides, more than five thousands of their own soldiers have died, and it is unable still to find a peaceful solution in a nation where the armed insurgence is still on a war footing. Moreover, because of the suicidal actions of this insurgence, the number of victims among the civil population and military invaders located in the country increases every day.

Without having a solution to the tragic Iraqi problem, the North American government would enter into an extremely delicate and complex situation with Iran if it decides to accomplish any interventionist action in this country, knowing full well that several consequences may come attached to it. In spite of all its military power, the USA is not infallible, and this is something that must always be taken into account.

Russia and China are in favour of a permanent diplomatic dialogue with Tehran and prefer to solve disagreements with this country by peaceful means. On the contrary, Washington insists on making immediate use of hard methods, and that is why it is planning air bombings against Iranian strategic buildings.

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Issue 5/ October - November 2007
By I. Máñez

If a butterfly flaps in Beijing, New York climatic systems could change next month. This idea known as “butterfly effect” is a visual example of world repercussion of the USA mortgage crisis. Due to a current globalized world, economy cannot escape from this parable. Thus, if the first world power is in recession, the rest of world economies will be also affected somehow or other. This was the case of Spain with six funds and five investment companies affected by the subprime mortgage crisis.

Flapping beginning

Unlike other North-American crisis where terrorism or the technological bubble explosion have been immediate causes, the present one is related to property market in the extremist way. This time the butterfly flapping is provoked by the increase in subprime mortgages non-payment, also known as “garbage mortgages” because they are soft in concession conditions but hard in interests. Non-payment has increase in 14% in such mortgages (given between 2003 and 2004 to people in a high-risk financial situation) together with housing prices nosedive in the USA have provoked the present crisis hitting the main world parquets.

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Issue 4/August-September 2007
by Virginia Caballero

Conquering the US Hispanic market, in all its different segments and sectors, is the dream of every marketing team in the country.With its high brand loyalty (5 %) and its strong buying power, this distinct group of 4 .5 million people from 22 different countries makes up the fastest growing consumer market in the United States and the obvious target of marketers. The multilingual diversity in this demographic group makes this a complex target. Preference and proficiency in language (some only speak Spanish, others only English while others speak both languages) are among the many issues that contribute to the complexity of this target group. When a company starts to define a media plan and decides which linguistic strategy will be used to grab this target’s attention, the debate begins. Is it better to use English, Spanish, or perhaps “Spanglish”?

“LATIN-USA” Territory The second largest Spanish-speaking economy in the world

“If we were to imagine for a moment that the U.S. Hispanic population was an independent nation, it would be the second largest economy in the Spanish-speaking world”, according to Aida Levitán and Javier Pérez- Palencia, co-founders of the marketing agency in Miami, Levitán & Palencia. This is what Dallas McDonald Marketing defines as a “nation within the US nation.”

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Issue 3/June -July 2007
By I. Mañez

With a total GDP of 13 billion dollars, the US has the largest and most technologically advanced economy in the world. However, the high dependence on fossil fuels from other countries continues to be the Achilles heel in its model for economic development. Americans top the world raking for oil consumption, a fuel which is controlled by foreign producers. The US accounts for 25% of the world’s oil consumption.

On close analysis for the data for importing and exporting crude, the balance tips over. The US contribution to world oil production is just 9%., while its import rate amounts to 60%. In line with this ‘oil addiction’ figures, Soeren Kern, the Senior Analyst to the Elcano Royal Institute on US-Spanish Transatlantic Dialogue, maintains that ‘America’s addiction to foreign oil is costly in other respects, too. For the US economy, each 10 dollar increase in the price of crude triggers a cut in household buying power of around 35 billion dollars which is approximately 0,5%’.

Kern believes that ‘the US has traditionally tried to solve its problem of oil dependence by using it military power to protect its supply routes and by supporting or installing friendly regimes’. Maybe the time has come to drop this policy and look for new sources of energy. In this sense, the experiences of foreign companies in the renewable energy sector, like Iberdrola and Gamesa from Spain, could become a cure for US ‘oil addiction’.

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Issue 3/ June-July 2007
Lucía Valero

U.S. Middle East politics is two-dimensioned. The provision of oil and Israel’s security are the main topics of its political agenda and are in constant conflict. On one hand, U.S.-Israel military agreements are widely known and aimed to keep the Zionist state as a regional power in the Middle East and as a front against a threatening Iran. On the other, U.S. enjoys fruitful commercial and military relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) -Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and United Arab Emirates-. The main objective of these alliances is focused on allowing U.S. military presence in the region as well as getting access to reasonably priced petroleum.

U.S-Israel relationship has always been special while alliances with Arab states have been far from being idyllic. Saudi Arabia, one of U.S. strongest friends, held firm against the Iraq invasion and keep some discrepancies with Washington’s behaviour in the area.

Saudi’s Arabia King, Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz, called the U.S. presence in Iraq “illegitimate” while speaking at the Arab summit in Riyadh in March, eliciting restrained reactions from Washington. State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack said that the U.S. viewed Saudi Arabia as a courageous friend and ally but he was clear that U.S. would demand an explanation on such declarations.

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Issue 2/ April-May 2007
By Juan Luis Dorado

How is the USA embargo on Cuba in 2007? Due to the Castro’s illness it is likely to be in the background. However, the embargo continues and the situation grows tenser. Despite appearances, the embargo is being reinforced and due to the current international situation divergent positions can not become closer.

Fidel’s illness has provoked a kind of state of emergency and decisions are being taken slowly and moderately. Fidel alive and until the Raul Castro’s death, the Havana will not negotiate with the USA the withdrawal of the embargo. Such situation will be seen by Cubans as a Castrism defeat more than a USA victory.

Nevertheless the situation is changing. On one hand, in the USA Democrats and some businessmen are against the embargo. On the other hand in the island the only agreement between the regime and dissidence is about the non-intervention of the USA in Cuban affairs.

At global level, there is a generalized condemnation of the embargo that is the opposite effect that the USA was aiming to obtain with the Helms-Burton law (1996). The law aimed to institutionalize Washington policy towards the Havana at world level.

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Issue 1/February-March 2007
By Lucia Valero

When President George W. Bush cited the global climate change as “the serious challenge” in his annual State of the Union address in January 23rd, 2007, the reactions across the world were far from being indifferent.

While some politicians considered the statement as the first approach to a major U.S commitment to tackle global warming, media and environmental groups received his words with scepticism for understanding that there were not real measures to be taken as the Government is deeply involved in other issues such as the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts.

The truth is, as environmentalists claimed, that the President’s energy initiatives were not dramatically different from those issued in the State of the Union address in 2006, and again were focused on the nation’s addiction of foreign oil and the need to reduce gasoline usage by increasing the supply of alternative fuels, mainly ethanol.
In fact, it was the second year that Bush promoted ethanol as the best alternative to oil and asked for further investments in the so-called “green energy of the future”.

Bush stated, as he did last year, that more researches must be conducted to produce new batteries for hybrid and electric cars in order to have cleaner vehicles.

Nevertheless, what it made a difference from the last State of the Union address –and thereby welcomed by policy makers- was the accurate mention to climate change as a matter to be taken into account.

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Issue 1/February-March 2007
By I. Manez

The brand “Made in Spain” continues to be the “great unknown” in the American market. Here is a practical example: if we are to conduct a survey in the heart of New York asking individuals to connect images to certain countries, bulls, paella and folklore would head the list of subjects for Spain. The last concepts that would come to mind are technology, innovation, or design. To change this situation, the current Spanish government has approved the Integral Market Development Plan 2005-2007 for the U.S., also known as the PIDM for its Spanish acronym. The main objective of this plan of action is precisely to consolidate the image of Spain as technologically advanced economy.

This lack of knowledge about Spain, which continues to exist in the American market, is reflected by a disproportionate commercial balance, in which American exports vastly exceed Spanish exports. A great part of this imbalance is caused by the decreasing competitiveness of Spanish products in international markets and insufficient promotion of Spanish brands abroad. Before going any further, see the data below regarding competitiveness, collected over the past two years in the Competitiveness Trend Rates prepared by the Ministry of Industry, and the Global Competitiveness Report published by the World Economic Forum.

To demonstrate this commercial imbalance, one needs only to analyze the business relationships with a state such as Florida. In a market such as that of the State of Florida, which on the surface can appear similar to that of Spain due to its high number of Spanish speakers (one of every six Florida residents speaks Spanish at home), we observe that of the 50 countries with the most commercial relationships with the State of Florida, Spain is in 20th position, following countries such as Peru, Honduras, Guatemala and Costa Rica. This position in the rankings is important when we refer to Florida as one of the most important commercial axes of the Americas, given its nature as a port of entry for international products. If we broaden the field of analysis and centre on the U.S as a whole (the number one economy in the world, generating 21% of global production and absorbing 16% of the world’s imports with a market of 293 million consumers), we see that Spain represents only 0, 4% of the foreign investment received by the U.S, a number 15 times lower than, for example, that of France.

The need to change this situation is clear, and now it is the time, given that both the Spanish and the American economies are in a growth phase.

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