Elections in Iran: enthusiasm and fear
05 - June - 2009 | 2Enrico Labriola
The struggle between the two visions for the future of Iran is in the toughest days. The 12th June elections mobilized the main parties and the public debate sustaining the two main opponents, with different programs and different views about the future of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is driving a campaign based on populist slogans (the same that have given him the victory) and hoping for a low turnout that could mean that ’silent voters’ that are bored and unsatisfied with the political class have not cast their vote. The aim of the opponent’s supporters is to build a grassroots movement that could bring the reformist former Prime Minister of Iran Mir-Hossein Mousavi to the Presidential victory. Speaking with some sources involved in the campaign, I have understood some key facts about this election.
Firstly, Iran is in a peculiar situation, and, differently from the others, this time all eyes are looking at the moves of citizens of Iran. And citizens know that this election could be decisive for the future of the Republic. On the other hand, the situation is very unclear and enthusiasm and fear are mixed in a complicate emotional moment. Mohammad speaks frankly about the new way of campaigning of the reformists: building a flat movement and campaigning on Internet and with widespread events and mobilization. It reminds me in a way the new wave calling for change driven by Barack Obama. Of course, Mousavi and Obama couldn’t be more different, but the exciting movement has many things in common. New key-words, a big involvement of common people, a charismatic figure and the distrust in traditional politics, mixed with a urgent need of change perceived my many.
One of the main point of Mousavi’s campaign, is to change the flow of information available for the public: now all the TVs and many of the media are focused on government agenda, giving little space to the opposition parties and even less to the reformist platform. Of course, the reformists are trying (and sometimes they succeed) to open the debate over the platforms and sustain Mousavi, but they face the strong opposition of a self-preserving system. The conservatives, after the ‘new wave’ of the years of Khatami, experienced how powerful could be the momentum of a reformist-driven movement, since the system for many in the streets of Tehran, simply is unable to reform itself, answering the demand of the common people. After the Tehran’s prosecutor Mortazavi stopped the publication of the reformist newspaper “Yas No” (just after 1 day), Mousavi launched his official newspaper, “Kalemeye Sabzd” (Green World), openly supporting his candidature and pointing out Khatami’s support.
The publication continue after one week, and this seems to mean that the line of a complete censorship on the reformist campaign has not been passed. But Mousavi is trying to use all the system to spread the keywords of his campaign and convince as many people as possible to cast their vote for him. The boycotters, that are going to do “not vote” as a protest for the corruption, the gerontocracy and the immobility of the current political system are the main target of Mousavi’s campaign. If the movement that Mousavi built and now is active in his favor will succeed in bringing the turnout around 70% (a big challenge for a country like Iran) instead of the 55% foreseen by the Central Electoral Commission, Mousavi could hope a victory. The movement is based on the long political career of Mousavi, culminated in the mandate as Prime Minister from 1981 to 1989, covering the years of the Iran-Iraq war and finishing after the post-Khomeini reforms, that has seen the post of Prime Minister abolished in favor of an increase in the power of the President.
The main character of Mousavi leadership was always a culture-based government; in fact he is now the president of Iran Academy of Arts. He always highlights, especially now as prominent figure of the reformist forces, the importance of pragmatism, and one of the slogans used many times is “evolution instead of revolution”. That means not only involving many people in the pacific campaign and persuading the skeptics to vote and participate, but also driving the movement in a real-change movement that could be effective. Another popular slogan is in fact “every citizen is a staff, every Iranian a companion”. Now the movement has the political and cultural force to win the race: is a flat movement of thousand of citizens, strong in the cities and full of enthusiasm. Some observers criticize the large bandwidth of the political positions supporting Mousavi platform: the radical reformists coexist with some moderate pragmatic linked to Rafsanjani, and this could be a problem given the fact that many positions are strongly different. But as in many cases, the leadership of Mousavi and the willingness for change overcome the political differences, and this is the force of this movement.
Moreover, these differences help the campaign to reach different social groups, targeted with different messages according to the most effective political messages. For example, for the urban middle-class is decisive the failure on the economic development in the years of Ahmadinejad, or the political reforms and the loosening of pressure on public or private behavior are key points to convince the young students. Someone says that the candidature and the campaign are influenced (and financed) by foreign powers, but nobody gave a proof in the whole campaign. Of course, Mousavi enjoys the support of many Iranians abroad, upset with the closeness of the current regime and feared that this could bring a new devastating war. You can see Mousavi face and slogans on the taxies that crowd the large avenues of Tehran, or on supporters’ private cars, or in the reformist newspapers (when they are not censored).
In the universities the supporters are ubiquitous, and also in mosques and religious meeting they spread the Mousavi’s platform. The campaign managers divided the efforts in 14 areas, including subways, buses, cafes, shops, squares and even surgeries. They are organizing parties in the cities and large political events that have seen large crowds, like at the Mousavi speech in Azerbaijani in Zanjan. The movement bets on Internet to reach young middle-class active electors, and spreads the message, informs and get over the constraints of the traditional media, dominated by the conservatives’ positions. That’s why was announced and then denied that Facebook, on which Mousavi supporters from all over the world exchange views, infos and materials, would be closed in June. But this filtering will be nullified soon and the government has not a clear position on this. They know that this is a risky move, and from the campaign they state that “this is not going to help them to keep back the flood”. All the campaign events are characterized by Islam color -green-, a way to refute the view of Mousavi as too reformist, or not-so-Islamic. Mousavi defined himself as a reformer who believes and respect the principles, and his personal and public life never gave his opponents real elements to object. Of course, he admits that the Islamic republic of Iran needs some systemic changes, but always according with the basic principles of the 1979 revolution.
Ahmadinejad too focused the campaign betting on large popular support and on his own flaming rhetoric. The populist platform is the natural continuation of the one that gave him the victory 4 years ago. Of course, the mobilization of voters gave him too large crowds listening his speeches outside the mosques or sport halls. And the populist way of his campaign (for example he personally gave some food to poor families) won him many sympathies. But the main fear is about the spillovers of this campaign. If the censorship on newspaper, websites and information about reformist campaign, will continue, if there will be anomalies or accidents in the voting procedure, or if the outcome of this election will be manipulated, nobody could say what will happen.
Some sources from Tehran reformists’ environment say that “closing all the newspapers and websites is a clear declaration of a non-democratic head to head conflict, in which other rules will be in force”. In fact the movement is not a pure social movement but is organized, due to the many political forces involved in it and has the mobilization capacity needed. There are many groups and influential parties who have been secluded from power and isolated in the last 4 years. Ahmadinejad’s government has lost more and more allies. Some of them have found a common ground in Mousavi’s camp due to his position of being a “reformer who believes and respects the principles”. Mohammad adds: “I do not think that the government is going to go that far as such a disaster is going to happen. And if it does, I think we will witness a completely different nature of competition.” On the 12th of June will see for sure a defining moment in the history of Iran.
