Globalaffairs

Issue 8/April-May 2008
By Juan Luis Dorado Merchán

A few years ago, when questioned about the future of Cuba after Fidel’s death, the philosopher Senel Paz said that the only thing he could confirm is that there would be a funeral.

Today, in 2008, the funeral of the Cuban leader is the only sure thing after his death. After retiring from active politics in February 2008, news that, although expected, shook the foundations of international politics, leaving open multiple options for the political, economic and social future of the Island.

All of this was foreseen and planned by the agile political mind of the leader of the Revolution: his brother Raúl’s succession, predicted many years ago; and the time that it was implemented.

Fidel Castro wanted to go out on the front line, as he would be following in the footsteps of the ideological soul of the Cuban regime, leaving everything neatly tied up.

He chose the right moment. On the one hand, parliamentary elections taking place in Cuba, which does not seem like giving up power, rather a more natural procedure; on the other, the electoral whirlpool of the United States, in full political campaign mode.

In his message to the world, published in the digital edition of Granma, there are several pearls that could be considered as historical. Firstly, his convalescence served to “prepare the Cuban people for his absence, psychologically and politically to prepare our people both politically and psychologically for my absence,” something that qualified as his “first duty after so many years of struggle.”

“The path will always be difficult,” continued Fidel Castro, and will require “everyone’s intelligent effort.”

In a clear message to cling onto the Revolution, and a new warning of foreign dangers, the Commander calls once again for the unity of all Cubans against external pressure and to “be prepared for the worst variable,” as “the adversary to be defeated is extremely strong.”

Before giving way to young people, although accompanied by the old guard, that according to Fidel’s words, “have the authority and the experience to guarantee the replacement.”

To define himself, he gave himself a new role in the Revolution: “soldier in the battle of ideas,” a role that would allow him to keep fighting with “another weapon you can count on.” This leaves two things clear: firstly, that Fidel will always be political and ideological soul of the Island. Secondly, when it comes to taking big decisions, he will always be the first person that his brother consults.

For his part, Raúl Castro has time ahead of him to apply economic reforms that have been foreseen for years, shifting Cuban socialism to one like in China: better economic liberalisation, along with better social and ideological control.

As for electoral year in the United States, Fidel Castro took the decision to leave power when President George Bush, on his way out, has his hands tied. The future president will arrive when the younger Castro brother has been confirmed and accepted by several international players.

All of this, with the permanent support of the loyal Hugo Chávez, who still keeps Fidel and the Cuban Revolution on his ideological pedestal next to Rafael Correa and Evo Morales, as well as investment from countries such as Spain and China, can help support Raúl’s plans.

However, Cuban society will continue at its own pace. As for the last 50 years, the changes and new situation will be taken with an unusual calm. In some way, they suspect that although the names have changed, it will be business as usual.

Reactions

It was predictable that international reactions would not take long after Fidel Castro’s decision. First came those of his allies, who were ready to back his successor Raúl Castro’s work. Secondly came those of countries tougher on the regime, especially the United States. Also more neutral countries, like the members of the European Union, of which especially Spain could play a decisive role as mediator in the short-term future.

Hugo Chávez was emphatic: “Men like him never retire,” and recorded that Fidel has shown to the world “that the Cuban Revolution does not depend on one person.” In contrast to this reaction, the US President, George Bush, declared that it is time to “begin a period of a democratic transition in Cuba.”

However, Bush is aware that his time in the White House is coming to an end, and it is because of this that his declarations did not go beyond his desire “to construct the necessary institutions for democracy, with a transition that will be driven towards free and just elections”.

From Bush’s conclusion, one doubt is left: what of the embargo? The answer came from the Deputy Secretary of State for the United States, John Negroponte. “I do not imagine that the lifting of our country’s embargo on Cuba will happen any time soon,” he said forcefully. He failed to add that this is while the Castros are alive.

The exile was more cautious than what was hoped, aware that the power that Raúl is taking on is stable. The Cuban American National Foundation (CANF) asked the new Cuban Parliament “to put an end to the Castro dynasty,” demanding to be able to vote for someone other than Raúl. However, they were aware that this petition was not feasible.

Latin American reacted with caution, but most of all, they supported Fidel’s decision, and they asked for tranquillity and were with Raúl Castro from the moment that he was named as the new Cuban President.

From Brazil, ‘Lula’ da Silva was the only one who expressed his fears towards Castro’s retirement, in case it creates “a turbulent climate,” in which “Miami Cubans consider returning and trying to take power.”

The rest of the reactions were calmer. Mexico expressed its desire for tranquillity and President Felipe Calderón assured that he would “follow the political events closely during this new stage in Cuba’s history.”

Without a doubt, the international focus is on the European Union, for its role as the most independent mediator for the political future of the Island. The relationship between Brussels and Havana has gone through several phases in the last 20 years, marked mostly by the Spanish government.

The tensest years were when José María Aznar was President of the government. Since Zapatero’s arrival, everything became more stable and returned to a normality that has given fruit to the human rights negotiations which took place in the last few months.

When the EU High Representative Javier Solana learnt of Brussels’ desire for Cuba “lead itself to a peaceful and quick transition that will benefit all Cubans.” This is the same international discourse that the EU has always with respect to Cuba. Nothing new.

The majority of reactions were in the line of maintaining the institutionality, although there few firm signatures for a future democracy in Cuba. Not even from the United States, not the White House, nor exile, expressed a stronger attitude. This is confirmation that Fidel has achieved what he set out to do: facilitate Raúl’s rise to power, as something natural, as something hoped and will give him time to initiate his own reforms.

Future Plans

After learning of Fidel Castro’s decisions, international analysts were contacted to give their theories over all that could happen in Cuba in the coming future.

They analysed all possible scenarios, but they gave little ground as to the real possibilities that Raúl Castro has, not trust to in the power that he has inherited, but make evolution the Cuban economy.

Raúl has always been more realistic than his brother, and his economic measures reactivated the Island’s economy slightly, during the so-called “special period” after the fall of the USSR at the beginning of the 90s.

For this, they would have to leave time for Raúl Castro to, with some new conditions in the country and the international scene, apply his reforms on the face of achieving a new system that could be called “Cuban socialism Chinese style.”

We cannot hope for large measures or a total liberalisation in the short term, because, as Raúl himself said in his first speech as President, the first thing is to improve the situation of the Cuban people. Then will come the international conjuncture’s turn. However, it is certain, that today, in 2008, Cuba is not isolated, and with its new supporters, above all with the members of the Bolivian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), it can face reforms, both interior and exterior ones.

Raúl Castro has time ahead of him to elaborate a double strategy for his work of Government. Firstly, taking care of developing an internal policy that makes Cubans’ day-to-day lives easier, applying measures that promote production and exportation to partner countries and that have positive consequences so that, little by little, the level of rations books increases.

This should be the first big objective of Raúl Castro: improve the situation of the Cuban people on all levels. For this, economic and diplomatic support will be fundamental from countries such as China, Venezuela and Bolivia.

Then will come the second great phase: international conjuncture

The new President of Cuba will have to take it slow to gain trust on the international playing field. First of all, he will have to make allies with his Latin American allies, especially Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. Then he should work on cementing a new relationship with the biggest players in the area: Brazil, Argentina and Columbia.

Once steps have been taken in Latin American diplomacy, then will come the moment for the rest of the International Community. Here, Raúl Castro and the rest of the leadership of the Regime have to define what role and influence Chinese socialism will have on the future and Cuban evolution.

China is building itself up to be a reference in the future of Cuba. It is a point of reference for many reasons, but mainly for the fact of having converted itself into a fundamental player in capitalist society without abandoning socialism. Without a doubt, it is these steps, on a different scale, naturally, that Raúl Castro has to face up to in order to introduce Cuba into the dynamics of global markets without abandoning the Revolution.

And then the United States. It is evident that none of the presidential candidates, McCain on one side, and Obama or Clinton on the other, will want to pay the political price of going down in history as ‘the one who lifted the embargo on Cuba’. But it is also certain, that the attitude could be one of major discussion (a lesser discussion is not possible) and if the Regime takes steps towards the economic game that Washington likes to play, the answer could be more positive for relations between both countries.

The last tune?

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, there have been regular moments when the Cuban transition after the Castro Regime ends has been more or less discussed. With the passage of time and North American administrations, the Cuban government has maintained itself, more or less isolated, leaving a precarious situation of isolation.

With the arrival of new players into the game, most of all in the first few years of the 21st Century, Havana has seen its power get stronger, and counted on partners and allies that would allow the Revolution to take new steps towards the future.

Today, however, the situation is radically different. Fidel Castro has left active politics, left the first line. Once more he has shown his strategic talent at choosing the right moment, as during all of his illness, the Cuban population got accustomed to the Head of State not being present, up until the arrival of “Reflections of Comrade Fidel’ in the Granma.

Life continued at the Cuban rhythm on the Island. The tranquillity with which the population took Castro’s decision surprised international forums, and perhaps also his resignation. The idea that the main personalities would change, but their lives and customs are so conditioned to the presence of the Communist Party, that they are realistic and are aware that the changes, if they come, will not be tomorrow.

Fidel Castro is no longer the Commander in Chief of the Revolution; now he is Comrade Fidel. It is now Raúl Castro who flaunts the stick of power. But the shadow of his brother is elongated, and there is no doubt that he will be consulted first on any vital decisions for the future of the Regime.

So, the music keeps playing in Cuba, with the same rhythm as always, without stopping. This is how political life in Cuba is today and always will be: tranquil, but with no stopping. This is how any changes (if they happen) in the future will succeed on the Island.

Fidel Castro will remain on the compass of life in Cuba in all fields, as he has been in the last 50 years. But now he will not be the leader of the orchestra, rather hired to write the songs, to give them form via his weekly reflections.

No one can guess what will happen in Cuba in the next few years. Faced with the prospect of Fidel’s absence, possibilities and theories are rocketing. The only thing that seems secure is that Castro has not yet written his last tune.

Juan Luis Dorado
Journalist specialised in Latin American politics.

Global Affairs is not liable for author’s opinion