Globalaffairs

Issue 18/December-January 2010
By Juan Luis Dorado Merchán

What will the tensions between Columbia and Venezuela come to? Will the tensions brought on by international leaders make the violence escalate or even lead to an outright confrontation in the area? Is the new agreement between Bogota and Washington about military bases to blame for the reaction of Chavez?

There are many questions to be answered when analyzing the latest conflict between Columbia and Venezuela. The latest tension. One of many between neighbouring states that seem condemned to perpetual misunderstandings, at least while both leaders are in power. And at least one of them will most likely stay in office for many years to come.

The installation of seven North American bases on Columbian territory, a military agreement whose benefits for Columbia are questionable, is the latest battleground of Hugo Chavez and the Bolivarians. It is a renewed reason to resort to doctrines of fear for the enemy, and thus whip up its bases and allies. A new form of strengthening the Bolivarian Revolution.

This strategy, modelled by their spiritual and ideological leader, Hugo Chavez, has been the foundation of their foreign policies since he decided to implement the changes he wanted for Venezuela and all of Latin America.

Especially since the attempt to overthrow his government in 2002, Chavez has used fear of the opposing enemy as his favourite discourse when entering the international arena.

Included amongst these “rivals” are the King of Spain, Jose Maria Aznar, Alvaro Uribe and the Spanish singer Alejandro Sanz.

However, the key figure in his propagandistic strategy, George W Bush, abandoned him 11 months ago.

Bush had become the hen with the golden eggs for Hugo Chavez. The Venezuelan leader promoted his demonization across Latin America, in particular after finding out that he might have been behind the coup d’état that could have overthrown him in 2002.

In truth, the former US president made it easy for Chavez to use his foreign policies. Everyone remembers the famous incident when Chavez stood before the General Assembly of the UN and commented, “It smells of sulphur in here”. The “devil” Bush had spoken in the same forum the previous day and Chavez did not want to miss this opportunity.

Bush, however, finished his second term. And Obama arrived and with him came change. From one day to the next, the whole world moved from despising the US President to practically adoring him.

This was not at all convenient for Hugo Chavez. His Bolivarian Revolution was still in need of tensions with the United States. He had to keep his people on alert against the presence of an aggressive enemy who could attack Venezuelan interests at any given time anywhere in the world.

From the very beginning, Chavez has not made Obama’s life easy, although like many others, he has taken a reserved stance. However, the need to use the “empire” as public enemy number one has finally got the better of Chavez. They need Washington to go back to being their permanent aggressor.

Honduras and the defeats

The year 2009 has not been easy for Hugo Chavez and his Bolivarian strategy for all of Latin America. First there was the new president of the United States, the change of attitude Washington took towards the region, and the positive response Barack Obama received from the majority of Latin American presidents, Lula in particular, have been an obstacle for Chavez’ ideas.

Then there was the coup d’état in Honduras. Manuel Zelaya, surprisingly, had accepted Chavez’ ideas. Honduras became part of the “Bolivarian axis” consisting of Nicaragua, Bolivia, Ecuador, Cuba and Venezuela itself.

It was not going to be that easy in all countries. A big part of the Honduran people, as well as the major part of the army, did not want Chavez to weave an ideological web of ideals together with Zelaya. And thus came the coup d’état. A completely antidemocratic and illegal way of saying no to the Bolivarian Revolution.

Chavez as ever was the first one to make a move. He got into a rage, put his army on guard, made threats left and right, called for union for the left wing parties in Latin America, but no one was fooled by his moves.

He soon realized his international importance was merely that of the president of Venezuela. Nobody came to the rescue of Honduras and Zelaya. Chavez’ outcries led to nothing and finally, the Hondurans themselves were the ones who reached certain (though few) agreements.

It is not known what the outcome of the next presidential elections in Honduras will be. Zelaya will not run for president and it is clear that his dealings with Hugo Chavez and the Bolivarism have led to his early demise. It is hard to explain to the society of a country that you have decided to change the constitution and instead will apply the rules of the Bolivarian Revolution.

Nevertheless, what Zelaya intended to do was the same thing Chavez, Morales, Correa and associates are doing: change the constitution as they please, prolonging their mandates for as long as it takes to make the necessary changes, and above all, obtain a preferential position for the supply of Venezuelan petrol to Honduras. An open and shut case.

Military bases and the strategy of Venezuela

Chavez, however, needed to charge his weapons and whip up his troops. He had to renew his propaganda. Finally he got what he most wanted: a double threat.

The agreement between the United States and Colombia to install seven military bases on Colombian territory was the ammunition Chavez needed.

He promptly talked to the Venezuelan and world media to draw their attention to the danger of their neighbour, permanent aggressor of the Venezuelan border; and the United States, the “Empire” and “Great Satan”, conspiring against his country with their move to install military bases.

Hugo Chavez’ strategy was clear: export this tension (perhaps unnecessary on both sides) to the whole of Latin America. His first declarations led in this direction.

According to the Venezuelan president, the installation of the military bases on Columbian territory were a grave aggression of the interests of South America and he made a quick appeal to the European Union regarding the consequences the agreement seen as a threat by Caracas could have.

Then it was Uribe’s turn. Obama has not been attacked much. It’s clear that if it had been Bush, all the attacks would have been directed at him, and some would have been saved for the Columbian leader. However, as the US president is in fashion, Chavez has not dared attack him directly.

Meanwhile, Chavez has made it clear that Alvaro Uribe and his government are in breech of international law with their “war attitudes”. He recalled former actions such as the bombing of Ecuadorian territory in 2008 while pursuing members of the FARC.

Chavez has not gone down the road of diplomacy at any time. He didn’t attempt to negotiate, nor did he consider asking for withdrawal through diplomatic channels requesting a Unasur summit. He simply referred to the threat to peace, security, and stability of the region and quickly resorted to verbal and diplomatic attacks.

In the official press release of the Venezuelan government, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela describes itself as “a tireless promoter of regional and international peace”. Propaganda. Chavez needed this conflict. He needed tension to get transmit it to his citizens. He wanted to once again have an excuse to appeal to the fear of an external enemy. And Columbia and Uribe gave him exactly what he needed.

Live on his TV show, Chavez started to frenzy up the population, transmitting his rhetoric and launching messages to the Armed Forces. He once again ordered several battalions to be at the ready at the border with Columbia (in the middle of his TV programme) and he reminded the other Venezuelan leaders of the importance of fighting this importance. His appeal was met with silence.

The majority of the presidents of Latin America, especially Lula da Silva and Cristina Fernandez, have opted for a new relationship with the United States that favours all. This clearly is Obama’s intention as well.

Some might think that Chavez is vindictive, that he is jealous of Obama after what he went through with George W. Bush or even that he really fears that the bases are a threat and could be used to orchestrate an invasion of Venezuela from Colombia. According to Chavez, all of this is a real possibility.

Nothing further from the truth. With time, Hugo Chavez has proven to be the best student of the school of Fidel Castro. He knows that many of his ideas and the changes that the Bolivarian Revolution promotes for Venezuela and Latin America won’t prosper without the threat of an external enemy, an invisible but latent threat. And Chavez has found one, perhaps for much time to come.

A useless conflict

What will the spectrum of threats by Hugo Chavez lead to? Will his discourse keep Alvaro Uribe quiet for much longer? What role will the FARC play in a possible worsening of the events?

After the agreement on the bases was announced, something started to happen in the United Nations. First Columbia, after the declarations of Hugo Chavez asking the Venezuelan Armed Forces “to get ready for war”, presented reclamation before the UN.

Some days later, the Venezuelan government alerted the Security Council to the installation of the bases which it considered a threat for the stability of Latin America.

Although, probably following his advisors’ indications, Hugo Chavez himself had to take a step back. Venezuela adopted a softer approach reassuring that “it would stay alert to the conflict and the risks that the establishment of the US bases entailed”.

It is probable that the conflict about the military bases will merely be a stepping-stone on the way to relationships between Columbia and Venezuela (Uribe and Chavez) following prior episodes.

It should not be forgotten that the tensions concerning the supposed aid Caracas gives to the FARC (including the problems with the liberation of Ingrid Betancourt) and the lack of agreement on cooperation between both countries on how to eliminate drug trafficking. Both of these topics, especially the latter, are of interest to Washington.

Without wanting to evaluate whether the military agreement between Bogota and Washington is beneficial to Colombia and the Colombian, it is clearly Hugo Chavez who is benefiting from this agreement the most.

As for peace in the region, each year, the democracies and the ideas of Latin America and the Caribbean are more stable. Lula, Bachelet and Fernandez (the presidents of the strongest countries) are not going to be fooled by Hugo Chavez as were other presidents previously and fewer leaders are susceptible to his politics.

Chavez is trying to create an image of himself as the guardian of the stability and peace and South American, selling the agreement on the bases as a regional threat, not just for Venezuela.

It is hard to believe, however, that he will deceive anyone. Not even his closest allies are completely behind him. They are aware of the moral weight of Obama and his decisions are having all over the planet and do not want to establish a conflict with Washington at this moment.

At a time when the majority of Latin American governments want to have a good relationship with the United States (both on a regional and an individual level), just one leader wants to be different, Hugo Chavez.

That is food for thought. Perhaps for once, Chavez should look at the region more and less at the Bolivarian Revolution and perhaps he should consider opening up a dialogue with Washington. He might not gain from it, but it would be beneficial for Latin America and for Venezuela.

Chavez won’t do that though, he has managed to perpetuate his power in a scarcely democratic way and he cannot afford to lose his main propagandistic goal.

If Chavez started to talk to Washington on a daily basis, visited Obama and received him in Caracas, then who would be the enemy?

Chavez will not abandon his arguments regarding the military bases. And he will find new ways of citing the “invisible enemy”. He is, however, aware that nobody else is looking for war in Latin America, for a direct face off between neighbouring states.

The Bolivarian leader will need to work to better the lives of the Venezuelan people and thus the lives of all Latin Americans. The region needs other things, not conflicts, though perhaps not military bases, but it is clear that Latin America has other priorities, such as strengthening the social cohesion in the whole region before losing itself in useless debates that lead to nowhere.

Juan Luis Dorado Merchán
journalist specializing in Latin American politics.

The views and opinions of contributors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of Global Affairs