Globalaffairs

Issue 15/June-July 2009
By Juan Luis Dorado Merchán

When a USA President is appointed he knows that he will have an international agenda very full. He is aware that he will have to deal with the Arab-Israel conflict, meet duties with allies, and try to maintain good relations with Russia …

This could seem the foreign policy of any country in the planet, obviously to some degree. But the tenant of the White House will have to deal with something exceptional, an unchangeable fact for 50 years: Cuba-USA relations.

John Fitzgerald Kennedy imposed a naval blockade on the Island and the resulting embargo, missile crisis, rafter exodus, Helms-Burton law, consecutive “alleged” murdering attempts of Fidel Castro, the aggressive policy of last Administration… all North American presidents since JFK have taken Castro’s Cuba as “their stone in the shoe”.

But last January it was a change of scene in the White House. A new man, Barack Obama gets settled, he breaks the stereotype of North American President and above all he is fresh air in comparison to the previous one, George W. Bush. Or maybe a hurricane.

In his agenda before his appointment, the Cuba situation was in red letters in Barack Obama’s mind. Since he took power in the USA and global press were focused on this small land in the middle of the sea: first due to new relation that Obama is boosting; second due to Guantanamo prison decision.

Getting closer?

Avoiding Guantanamo issues, something that is much related to domestic policy, from the beginning Barack Obama was focused on a new relation with Fidel Castro’s Cuba.

Of course he has demand to Castrist leaders some changes in their domestic policies that are not related to main historical claims of Washington to Habana.

This potential rapprochement clashes with one of the main doctrines as for the relations with the Island since JFK times: The negotiation with Cuban authorities will be just possible if it is not with Castro Brothers. This is one of the main exile premises of Miami.

But the exile, mainly Republican has lost power in Washington decisions with the advent of a Democrat Administration. To this situation it is necessary to add that the toughest members of the Cuban exiles have already died. Currently the main faces of Cubans in the USA are young business men looking forward to investing in their homeland.

Here it could be the key factor for the future transition in the Island and USA-Cuba relations improvement: change has to come through dialogue among Cubans and Washington as mediator. It is quite possible that Obama wants to take this role and finally solving the Cuban problem.

But Cuba does not want “alms”. These words are not from the journalist, are Fidel Castro’s words, the successful blogger that keeps establishing the main line about the Cuba fate. As for the first words of Barack Obama regarding the Cuba relations during his term of office, Fidel was unequivocal: “we want to negotiate equally”.

Cuba is in its right to ask for a negotiation without making concessions because it is a sovereign State, independently of world opinions about its sovereignty.

Here it is one of the main doubts (and fears) for Barack Obama: What will be the political price for holding out his hand to Castro’s Cuba?

First steps from Washington

From the beginning, the Obama Administration is working to improve Cuba relations. It is obvious the first encounters have not been public, but the new North American president wants the change and this means to break with all done before, especially concerning the work made by Bush government in regard to the Island.

Especially during the first years of the Bush Government political strain did not stop increasing. Even in Miami it was written, in cooperation with the State Department, a transition to democracy for the Island in the American way. This could be translated as the “Iraq or Afghanistan way”.

But at that time things were not very good so a new conflict and international critics in Cuba were discarded by Washington.

An invasion would have been the end of the calm relations between the EU and the USA of George W. Bush. Moreover, no one could have explained something like that because the superiority of one country over the other one was quite obvious.

Meanwhile Obama has arrived with his promises of change. And they were not just words: he wanted things to really change but still keeping the toughest discourse.

Barack Obama will work with the Raul Castro government regarding relations between both countries but departing from clear points: respect to Human Rights, expression freedom and transition to a democracy that will allow all Cubans to decide about their future.

Here it is the key point of one of his main decisions, lifting Cuba travel restrictions and restoration of flights. Obama is aware of the need of a democratic spirit among the Island citizens therefore trips of fellow countrymen living in democracy in the USA are essential to reach a transition among Cubans and for Cubans.

Furthermore, in this way he was helping Cuban tourism sector thus this one will recover its main market, the North American one. Obama decided to lift restrictions imposed by Bush and he promised to restore commercial flights among both countries.

This measure, that on paper it could seem purely economic it has a large amount of political meaning. Firstly it shows to Cubans and to the government that the new North American Administration has a good will. Moreover, it has a double meaning because for the first time in many years it will be complicated that citizens of the Island will see the President of the USA as a devil.

In addition to this it launches a clear message to the International Community: “We are changing”, and it seems to say “and we are doing it with the oldest conflict that we have, the Cuban conflict”. This message was got by many governments as the Spanish one that hurried up to show its satisfaction labeling the decision as “undoubted humanitarian scope because it will facilitate without doubts the necessary rapprochement between Cuba and the USA”.

What Obama expects from Cuba?

Firstly, Obama expects what all former presidents have expected from Cuba: freedom, democracy and without Castro. Departing from this premise it has to be taken into account a clear consideration. The new North American president is aware that through force and pressure will just increase the Castrism strength and he is searching new ways.

As I said in another article, Fidel Castro has made an art from the “square under siege theory”. Highlighting the bad consequences of the North American enemy has made his discourse strong throughout years to the people and that helped him to keep in power.

If  Obama breaks this war and non conciliatory discourse towards the Island will leave the Cuban government members without one of their main arguments.

On the other hand, he is also aware that Cuba is not isolated as it was in the 90s. Currently it has allies and also it has become a reference for other Latin-American governments with Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela as a leader.

Thus, Barack Obama treads carefully in this issue. He perfectly knows that the main issue is to recover a cordiality atmosphere with all countries in the region, starting from Venezuela.

That was obvious in the last Summit of the Americas where the USA for the first time in a large number of years came with a conciliatory will that never happened before. The current Administration is aware of the damage that George W. Bush has made in the USA relations with many neighboring countries.

Obama’s main priority is to recover American relations at all levels and dialogue in equal conditions. If he shows a war attitude, resentment will come back and Hugo Chavez would not hesitate to take advantage of them. The “square under siege” discourse used by Fidel Castro and now by Raul Castro, Hugo Chavez or Evo Morales has to be broken.

From this perspective Cuba could be approached. If they work for the Island future with all America opposed it is impossible to reach a safe harbor because it will not be easy.

For that purpose the first step could be the return of the Habana to the Organization of American States (OAS) with the simple goal of normalizing relations and launching a clear and categorical message: we consider Cuba equally.

But something has to be taken into account: Obama does not have and not going to lower himself to Cuban claims. Because there is something to be explained: even with Fidel or now with Raul, Cuba is and will keep being a totalitarian dictatorship disguised as socialism without expression freedom and human rights respect.

And this is something that Obama has not to forget when working for normalizing relations.

He also has not to forget: Cuba is not the USA. In the former Administration with some statements it seemed that they consider the Island as a part of the USA, a new USA state. And this damaged in a large amount the potential transition and relations improvement.

Obama has to fight for improving the relations with Habana and helping a transition when Fidel will dye and Raul would have not moral strength enough to continue.

But under a clear premise: the future of Cuba, both at political and social level will be decided by Cubans. And the transition has to be through dialogue among Cuban people not only the ones in the Island but also the ones living abroad.

This is a unique opportunity to show the change that Barack Obama has talked about many times. The best way for dealing with Cuba is allowing Cuban people to work for their own future. The future of the Island must be decided in a Cuban way.

Juan Luis Dorado Merchán
Journalist specialized in Latin American politics

Global Affairs is not liable for author’s opinions

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