What is the embargo playing?
15 - April - 2007 | 0Issue 2/ April-May 2007
By Juan Luis Dorado
How is the USA embargo on Cuba in 2007? Due to the Castro’s illness it is likely to be in the background. However, the embargo continues and the situation grows tenser. Despite appearances, the embargo is being reinforced and due to the current international situation divergent positions can not become closer.
Fidel’s illness has provoked a kind of state of emergency and decisions are being taken slowly and moderately. Fidel alive and until the Raul Castro’s death, the Havana will not negotiate with the USA the withdrawal of the embargo. Such situation will be seen by Cubans as a Castrism defeat more than a USA victory.
Nevertheless the situation is changing. On one hand, in the USA Democrats and some businessmen are against the embargo. On the other hand in the island the only agreement between the regime and dissidence is about the non-intervention of the USA in Cuban affairs.
At global level, there is a generalized condemnation of the embargo that is the opposite effect that the USA was aiming to obtain with the Helms-Burton law (1996). The law aimed to institutionalize Washington policy towards the Havana at world level.
Most international forums consider the embargo as an attack on international law. Almost every year the EU and the Latin American summits condemn the aggressive attitude of the USA towards Cuba. Above all, it is important to highlight the annual condemnation of the UN general Assembly of the embargo that is a “flagrant violation of the principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and international law”.
Intensification in the 90’s
The embargo was intensified at the end of the Cold War. First, the Torricelly Law in 1992 and second the Helms Burton Law in 1996. When Bush came to power, Washington intensified its activity over Cuba and created the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba included in the US Department of State.
This Commission elaborated the Cuban Transition Project known as Bush’s Plan for Cuba. This document contains all steps for a US managed transition including the creation of a consul for the transition process.
It is clear that Washington is waiting. But what is waiting for? It is waiting for the disappearance of Castro brothers as departure point for implementing all policies theorized in the last years.
What about Cuba? The increasing aggressive policy of the Bush Administration towards Cuba has reinforced the political discourse of Fidel. In the last years, the Castrism has waved the union flag against North-American enemy as a way to legitimize itself in front of Cubans.
In the last seven years, the political attitude of the USA has helped to freeze internal debate in Cuba destroying any kind of change within the Cuban regime. Until his illness, Fidel’s speech has been presented as a continuous confrontation against the United States, from the Elian case to the messages crises in January of 2006.
In 1999 Castro imposed the Great Battle of Ideas based on speeches, demonstrations, propaganda and massive mobilizations against the USA.
Moreover, the international situation has reinforced Fidel’s discourse. Above all, Fidel has used the Iraq war and the situation of prisoners in Guantanamo as powerful weapons against Washington.
Isolation break
In 2003, a series of events isolated Cuba from the international society as it happened at the end of the Cold War. A repressive massive wave and two executions in the island made the UN condemn the Regime’s attitude and the EU imposes sanctions on Cuba. The United States took advantage of such situation to harden the embargo measures.
However, in this situation of Cuban isolation Hugo Chavez appeared. In 2005, Cuba and Venezuela cooperated in a common axis against the USA and in the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). At that time the so called Bolivian axis was created that subsequently included Evo Morales from Bolivia, and Rafael Correa, President of Ecuador.
In this new reality Fidel became the mentor of the New Latin American Left. Venezuelan oil, Bolivian gas and the creation of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) have broken the international isolation of Cuba reducing the negative impacts of the USA embargo.
In this new situation, the USA could modify the embargo on Cuba as effective tool for the island. If Cuba is not internationally isolated, the embargo looses strength and international firmness. The only consequence of the embargo is blocking the economic development of Cuba because it does not reach its natural market: the United States.
Juan Luis Dorado Merchán
Journalist specialized in Cuba and Latin America
Global Affairs is not liable for author’s opinion
