Globalaffairs

Issue 17/October-November 2009
By Glen Ruffle

Obama’s recent announcement that he will abandon George Bush’s missile defence shield and the positioning of missiles in Eastern Europe, along Russia’s borders, supposedly aimed at Iran, has been welcomed in Moscow, and secretly, will have been welcomed by the US Treasury.

At a time of financial crisis, and with an enormous deficit and debt, the US cannot really afford to press ahead with such an expensive, unproven and destabilizing programme [1]. There is no proof the missiles will work, and Russia, with a large stabilization fund full of money to spend, would launch an arms race the US could ill-afford. Obama knows that it is far better to have Putin and Medvedev on side in dealing with the real problem of Iran, because of their influence [2].

Elections

The recent elections in Iran have seen Ahmadinejab retain his grip on power, with the blessing of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Together, they have reversed the slow trend to modernisation and openness begun under President Rafsanjani and continued under Ahmadinejad’s predecessor, President Khatami.

As such, the Middle East situation remains tense, as Iran’s nuclear ambitions and attitude to Israel has not changed. Yet behind Iran’s power, lurks a larger force with its own interests. Without Russian technology and equipment, Iran could possibly have lost in a war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, and would have been unlikely to have developed its nuclear programme as fast.

Yet what is Russia’s interest and relationship with Iran? Why does Russia help Iran, and what does it mean?

Islam

We can summarise the relationship under the headings of religion and geopolitics. Iran, for the most part, is the world’s major Shi’ite Islamic power. Whereas the majority of Muslims are Sunni Muslims, Shi’ite Islam exists mainly concentrated in Iran, southern Iraq and Azerbaijan. The Shi’ite religion is actually more flexible and open to ideas than the Sunni variant, and this adds uniqueness to Iran’s character that does not exist with relations with more intolerant regimes, the Taliban of Afghanistan being one of them.

Although relations between Sunni and Shia Muslims are not always good, Iran does carry respect and influence in the Muslim world, if only because it has defied the US [3]. Because of this, it is important to Moscow, which has marketed itself also as a Muslim power to try and avoid the problems of Islamic terrorism at home, to have good relations with Tehran. By aiding Iran, the Kremlin can achieve better relations amongst the predominantly Muslim Commonwealth of Independent States, and help to placate the 10% and growing number of people who live in Russia proper and call themselves Muslim. It also gives Moscow a little more influence in the South of Iraq, where a large number of Shi’ite Muslims also live.

President of Russia, Dmitry A. Medvedev addresses Security Council Summit. UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

Russia’s involvement in the intense conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia was heavily tempered by pressure from Iran, as the Azeri’s are Shi’ite Muslims. This region, which also comprises Georgia and now the de facto independent regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, is critical to Moscow, as the region is a buffer, sandwiched between Russia, Turkey and Iran [4].

Geopolitics

Moscow’s failure to act in this region will, quite simply, be met with another powers initiatives of action. A vacuum will not go unfilled, and Russia has the advantage of this area already being the post-Soviet sphere of interest. If Russia did not act, Iran would extend its influence, or the US would push in, or Turkish efforts would bring results. Either way, it is important for Russian security to engage actively with Iran; it is, after all, the only power that can rival Russia in the vicinity of the Caspian Sea, and the only major power to vie for the oil reserves that lie therein.

Historically, Iran has been an area of Russian and then Soviet influence, and offers important access to the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea and thus then into the Indian Ocean. Good relations with Iran could speed Russia’s ability to access the Indian Ocean considerably, whether those needs for access are military or economic. Otherwise Russia faces a much longer route via the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Red Sea.

Money

Finally we must consider the financial aspect. Iran is a ready supplier of hard currency for Russian goods. Russia has a weak economic base and desperately needs to diversify from Oil and Gas, though struggles to develop industries. Iran is a ready market for Russian production, and one with many Russian investments.

President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, participates in Roundtable Discussion on Africa. UN Photo/Rick Bajornas

After the US invasion of Iraq, Russia lost a lot of investments and deals it had signed with Saddam Hussein’s regime, with little in the way of compensation. The threat of losing so much was one reason Russia vetoed the invasion in the UN Security Council. Iran remains as a valued trading client, and it is in Russia’s interest to guard that relationship. It is also a bargaining chip - if Moscow is to put the relationship with Iran on the line, how much will the West really be ready to offer?

Russia is by no-means a fan of Iran. It trades and works with Iran purely for selfish reasons and to increase its influence in the world [5]. As such, Russia is open to influence and change, and the West, instead of constantly criticising Russia, should look at working closer with Moscow to achieve stability. The Kremlin does not want a conflict between Iran and Israel, yet could be fuelling just such a situation.

The West

The European Union has not really been sure what stance to take towards Russia. Whilst the Eastern European states constantly bicker with Moscow, Germany has sought to develop large commercial deals and secure herself future energy supplies.

It is in fact this Germanic line that needs supporting. Drawing Russia into contracts, treaties and energy connections is far more constructive than alienating her and driving her to support extremist regimes for financial reasons.

So thinks Obama as well. Winning Russian favor will greatly increase the pressure the EU, US and free world will be able to put on to Iran. The Republicans might portray this move as that of a weak President who has lost his way, but the reality is that this is a move from a smart President who knows what is going on, how the finances are, and how to build international influence.

Glen Ruffle
Masters degree from the University of Southampton

Sources/Bibliography

[1] Christopher Meyer (2009) ‘Why Obama is turning his back on Britain…’, pages 14-15 of Daily Mail, Saturday 26/09/09

[2] Katherine Butler (2009) Iran, Russia and the missile chess game, page 5 of The Independent, Friday 25th September 2009

[3] Ian Traynor (2000) ‘Kremlin’s arms salesman target US foes’, The Guardian, Tuesday 5th December 2000, page 16.

[4] Peter Neville (2000) ‘Russia: the USSR, the CIS, and the Independent States: A complete history in one volume’, The Windrush Press.

[5] R. Cottrell (2002) ‘Kim meeting puts Russia’s balancing act to the test’, Financial Times, page 2, Weekend August 24th-25th 2002

N.N. Petro and A.Z. Rubinstein (1997) ‘Russian Foreign Policy’, Addison Wesley Longman

The views and opinions of contributors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of Global Affairs